Thursday, August 7, 2014

Which Mideast power brokers support Hamas?

(CNN) -- If the Gaza truce holds and Israel's Operation Protective Edge comes to its conclusion, some things are certain. Both Israel and Hamas will declare military victory -- Israel pointing to the destruction of militants' tunnels and depletion of Hamas' rocket supply; Hamas pointing to dozens of dead Israeli troops and the survival of Hamas leadership in Gaza. But unlike in previous conflicts, when Hamas had the support of many Arab nations, things have changed. This time, as CNN has reported, the fighting between Israel and Hamas has been a proxy war for the Mideast. Key regional players Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have their own reasons to want to fend off the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is part, experts say. And Europe, like the United States, lists Hamas as a terrorist organization for its numerous attacks on civilians. But the group does have the support of some countries. "It's no longer the Muslims against the Jews," said Danielle Pletka, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "Now it's the extremists -- the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, and their backers Iran, Qatar and Turkey -- against Israel and the more moderate Muslims including Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia." A look at some key Hamas supporters: Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan openly supports Hamas. "Erdogan has tried to use the cause of the Brotherhood to bolster his own Islamist credentials at home," says Eric Trager, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Turkey also has "more of an ideological sympathy with the Brotherhood," Trager says. Qatar Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt -- which was toppled from power in a coup last year. Qatar funds many Muslim Brotherhood figures in exile, including Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal, who is believed to have orchestrated numerous terrorist attacks. "Qatar has a long history of providing shelter to Islamist groups, amongst them the Muslim Brotherhood and the Taliban," Shashank Joshi of the Royal United Services Institute tells Time. Advocating for Hamas is beneficial to Turkey and Qatar in their political objectives because the cause draws popular support at home, says world affairs writer Frida Ghitis in a CNN.com column. But some question whether Qatar's support still is for Hamas is still strong. The country's financial support to the group "largely dried up" as Qatar sought "to mend ties with its neighbors, with whom it had fallen out in part for backing the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt," the Council on Foreign Relations said. While Qatar and Turkey are powerful allies, "Hamas might wish for more support given the breadth of the Arab world," Time reported. Iran and Syria In the past, Iran and Syria supported Hamas. Iran supplied the group with weapons; Syria was home to Meshaal. But Meshaal did not support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country's civil war. In 2012, Meshaal left for Qatar, causing a breakdown in his relationship with both Syria and its ally Iran, says Firas Abi Ali, head of Middle East and North Africa Country Risk and Forecasting at the global information company IHS. And while Iran still professes to support Hamas, such claims "are more ostentatious, showy, exaggerated and theatrical rather than genuine and practical," writes Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-American scholar at Harvard University, in a column for al Arabiya. Iran, which is a Muslim but not an Arab nation, "uses Hamas (as well as Tehran's support for the Palestinian cause) as a tool to project its power and influence in the Arab world," he argues. The Council on Foreign Relations says Iran, while cutting its funding to Hamas in recent years, "sought to bolster its ties to other resistance groups in the region, such as Islamic Jihad." Hezbollah The Lebanese militant group based in Lebanon is aligned with al-Assad's regime in Syria. During the conflict, Hezbollah reached out to Hamas, praising its "steadfastness." This does not mean the relationship is repaired to where it stood before Syria's civil war, but "a new realignment might happen," Farwaz Gerges of the London School of Economics told Time. Popular support Hamas' greatest support in the wake of the conflict with Israel may be from the public in Gaza and other parts of the Arab world. "Hamas is not a monolith, nor is it only a terrorist group," Ed Husain of the Council on Foreign Relations writes on CNN.com. "It is a social movement, with a mass membership, a popular message of resistance that resonates across the Muslim world, and a political party with which we must negotiate." Some analysts believe Hamas will emerge stronger from the fight with Israel. The conflict "will only further radicalize the Palestinian population -- and alienate frustrated friends in the United States," Mark Perry of Foreign Policy argues. Before Operation Protective Edge, a poll by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy found that most Palestinians in Gaza oppose a two-state solution and want to work toward abolishing Israel -- a goal that is in line with Hamas' charter. It's no longer the Muslims against the Jews. Now it's the extremists -- the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, and their backers Iran, Qatar and Turkey -- against Israel and the more moderate Muslims including Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Danielle Pletka, American Enterprise Institute But the poll also found most Palestinians support nonviolent methods of achieving their goals. Support could affect arms supply While Hamas' recruitment might soar now, militarily the group "is on the ropes," with tunnels destroyed and much of its rocket supply depleted, writes Rick Francona, retired U.S. Air Force intelligence officer and CNN military analyst. "After similar conflicts in the past, Hamas has been rearmed and resupplied by its supporters, primarily Iran and to some extent Syria. The most efficient method for the rearming and resupply effort has been via the large number of smuggling tunnels between Gaza and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. "That is not likely to be the case this time -- another blow to Hamas, which it must factor in to its assessment of this conflict as well as its future planning."

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Bring Hamas to the table

(CNN) -- "Who do you want to see?" asked the Salafi Jihadists holding their AK-47s at the gate. "Hamas leaders," I replied. "Why Hamas? Why not our Jihadi brothers?" the guard asked. "Well, Hamas are in government in Gaza." "They won't be in future," he responded. "They have sold out and become agents of the Israelis, and in years to come we will govern Gaza. Be sure to meet our brothers here in the camp, too." The guard then gave me directions to a safe house where someone could take me to Hamas. This was last summer. I was visiting a Palestinian refugee camp in Beirut for book research. It took me two more days to locate Hamas leadership. Inside the camp, just as in Gaza, Hamas had a wide network of schools, financiers, mosques, makeshift hospitals, readily available doctors, banking services, and support for orphans and widows. We in the West deem Hamas a terrorist organization. Yes, one part of it is committed to terrorism, killing innocent civilians in the pursuit of political aims, but we are mistaken if we continue to limit our definition by one aspect of Hamas. Unless we better understand Hamas, we cannot help halt the killings of Israelis and Arabs in the Middle East. Hamas is not a monolith, nor is it only a terrorist group: It is a social movement, with a mass membership, a popular message of resistance that resonates across the Muslim world, and a political party with which we must negotiate. "When the Israelis were fighting Yasser Arafat and the PLO, the Arabs were losing," the Hamas leader -- whose name I must withhold -- told me. "We saw them abandon anti-aircraft missiles here in Beirut in the 1980s. But now, with Hezbollah and Hamas, we fight to die, to kill. We believe in martyrdom. We don't flee from the battlefield." To my Hamas hosts, Israel's operation in Lebanon in 2006, or its attack on Gaza in 2009, were huge victories. "We are now winning. We fight Israel and want to fight again and again." This strong belief that they are victorious is in itself a loss for Israel: It has failed to weaken Hamas. Fighting and killing have been a curse to Israel's existence over the last six decades. The trajectory has been to make Israel weaker and more hated around the world; to popularize the ideology of radicalism amid Muslims and fuel anti-Americanism in the Middle East. Israel cannot kill itself into security or survival. It must learn the language of peace and co-existence. For how much longer will we in the West continue to damage our own standing in the nearly 2 billion-strong Muslim world as our ally Israel delivers dead children and destroyed schools to Muslim television screens? Israel killed Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 2004, along with several bodyguards, and then his successors, promising us that this would help reduce violence and terror. Almost a decade later, Hamas is not only strong and vibrant, in government since 2007, but lobbing rockets at Jerusalem and kidnapping Israeli soldiers. In short, Hamas is strong and growing psychologically stronger, while Israel has failed to achieve its peace and security. Worse, contrary to what many believed, Hamas was not weakened when Egypt's President Mohamed Morsy, a supporter, was toppled in July 2013. Morsy made many mistakes, but President Obama's telephone calls to him helped bring Hamas to the table and secure a cease-fire in 2012 much sooner. Israel does not deserve all the blame. Arab political and religious leaders, despite historic grievances, have a duty to recognize that Israel is their neighbor. Israel is part of the mosaic of the modern Middle East. A change in tone and tenor and a public embrace of Israel by religious leaders will calm the nerves of an anxious Israeli population. In the end, Israel has limited options. Peace is not possible without Hamas, and Hamas is not a simple terrorist outfit. Its political arm, its leadership inside and outside Gaza, despite their tensions, are open to indirect talks with Israel. Just as the British and American governments negotiated peace in Northern Ireland by reaching out to IRA terrorists through their political wing of Sinn Fein, we must tame Hamas through politics, not the failed strategy of war. Hamas and Islamic Jihad were among the Palestinian groups that met in Cairo Sunday and reached a 72-hour humanitarian cease-fire agreement brokered by Egyptian officials. Here, the European Union and the United States can work through Fatah, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and negotiate along the 2002 Arab peace plan suggested by Saudi Arabia. Hamas must be brought in. Almost 2 million people in Gaza need our support. If we fail to bring in Hamas and create a sustained peace that leads to prosperity for Palestinians and Israelis, then we must prepare for an enemy who is worse: Salafi Jihadis. And with Gaza, the popularity of the Salafi Jihadi message will spread far and wide. My guard at the refugee camp insisted I speak with his brothers-in-arms. I did not, but I fear he might be right. Will Israel help itself and us, or hinder?